Clinton saw the largest lead in Michigan, where she led Trump by a weighted 17 percentage points. Voters in … Below, see a sampling of 2016 presidential general election polls.
Why do some states matter more than others? Investigative reporter Greg Palast alleges that voter suppression techniques employed by Republicans eliminated the votes of, potentially, millions of minority voters who would be expected to vote for the Democratic candidate. EP's ad revenue down 90% from 2016. Presidential races are closely monitored and polled continuously, as early as two to three years before the actual election. Read about our approach to external linking. Republican Donald Trump is elected US president, defeating Democrat Hillary Clinton. This page lists nationwide public opinion polls that have been conducted relating to the 2016 United States presidential election.The two major party candidates were chosen at the Democratic National Convention and Republican National Convention in July 2016.. Donald Trump won the general election of Tuesday, November 8, 2016, despite losing the popular vote while winning the electoral college. This page displays the current 270toWin Polling Average for each state. http://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_election_in_STATE,_2016, Presidential election, 2016/General election polls, Tracking polls including third party candidates, Ballotpedia Battleground Poll (June 10-22, 2016), Ballot access for presidential candidates, Presidential campaign fundraising, 2008-2016, September: Democratic control of the White House, September: Democratic control of Congress, Insiders Poll: First Democratic debate (October 13, 2015), Insiders Poll: Winners and losers from the Fox News Republican Debate, CNN Democratic debate: analysis and commentary, CNN Republican debate: analysis and commentary, Post-debate analysis: James A. Barnes, Karlyn Bowman and David Kusnet, U.S. Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland, Economic affairs and government regulations, Presidential campaign key staff and advisors, Rule 40 and its impact on the 2016 Republican National Convention, 2016 presidential primary election and hypothetical polls, ABC News/Washington Post Poll (All adults), ABC News/Washington Post Poll (Registered voters), Important dates in the 2016 presidential race, 2016 presidential nominations: calendar and delegate rules, Presidential campaign trackers and opposition researchers, Presidential campaign staff transfers, resignations and terminations, Staff leaks from 2016 presidential campaigns, NBC News, January 17, 2016 (Charleston, S.C.), ABC, December 19, 2015 (Manchester, N.H.), Fox Business, January 14, 2016 (North Charleston, S.C.), Fox Business, November 10, 2015 (Milwaukee), Presidential Nominating Index: Clinton remains choice of Democratic Insiders, Presidential Nominating Index: Bush remains choice of Republican Insiders, https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=Presidential_election,_2016/General_election_polls&oldid=6488067, Tracking election disputes, lawsuits, and recounts, Ballotpedia's Daily Presidential News Briefing, Submit a photo, survey, video, conversation, or bio, For readers interested in polls that were conducted earlier in the 2016 cycle, please see Ballotpedia's coverage of. Ballotpedia does not curate or endorse these articles. Click on a state in the map below to view presidential polls conducted on statewide sample groups, plus additional state-specific election information. Using exit poll totals compiled by election researcher Theodore de Macedo Soares, seen in the table below on this page as well as available at this link, compared to an ongoing tally of raw votes totals posted at this link by Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Report, here is the discrepancy that has caused the suspicions of what Trump himself would call a “rigged election.”. There simply aren’t enough white guys to elect Trump nor a Republican Senate,” Palast said in an interview TheLondonEconomic.com site. Edison only recently started polling voters by phone prior to election day, to get statistics on early voting results. What happened? Use the check box to switch between Clinton vs. Trump polls and those that also include Johnson and/or Stein. View the Electoral Map Based on Polls to see what the polls are saying related to the quest for 270 electoral votes. Crucial states in deciding who wins the election. According to 2016 exit polls, Hillary Clinton (above) won four key swing states and should have won the election. “Edison developed its statistical models months before the vote, and long before there were any pre-election polls suggesting which candidate was likely to win a given race,” wrote Joshua Holand earlier this year in The Nation magazine. Exit polls from the 2016 presidential election showed Hillary Clinton winning four crucial swing states that, when the final vote tallies came in, were actually won by Donald Trump. Exit poll table compiled by TDMSResearch.com.
In one set, we matched Hillary Clinton (D) in a series of two-way contests with Donald Trump (R), Ohio Governor John Kasich (R), and House Speaker Paul Ryan (R). Statistician Nate Cohn of The New York Times Upshot has also warned of the unreliability of exit poll data. When the polls failed to accurately predict the British general election in May 2015, it took a blue ribbon panel and more than six months of work before the public had the results of a data-driven, independent inquiry in hand. And because this year saw such a huge surge in early voting, it’s hard to use past years to predict how representative a sample is.”, Early Election Day Results: Clinton Leads Florida, Ohio — Races Look Tight. In all seven states, Clinton polled higher than Trump. The original election projection website, since 2003, This year, I'm relying more than ever on readers to support Election Projection. He had led in the polls all along but Democrats made much in the final weeks of a possible victory. Regardless of whether polls can predict election results, they remain a staple of the political coverage of presidential elections. Here are the facts. But in an interview this week with the news site Raw Story, Simon was more restrained. Did Hillary Clinton win the election after all? Exit polls from the 2016 presidential election showed Hillary Clinton winning four crucial swing states that, when the final vote tallies came in, were actually won by Donald Trump.
After his historic election in 2008, President Obama secured a second term in 2012. Also, if exit polls had been correct in Florida and only one of the other three swing states, Clinton would have won the election. Numbers in parentheses represent that state's electoral votes. Click here for projected margins of victory. All Rights Reserved. Exit Polls: Clinton 47.7, Trump 46.4 — Clinton wins by 1.3, Actual: Clinton 47.8, Trump 49.0 — Trump wins by 1.2, Trump gain between exit polls and actual results: 2.5, Exit Polls: Clinton 48.6, Trump 46.5 — Clinton wins by 2.1, Actual: Clinton 46.1, Trump 49.9 — Trump wins by 3.8, Exit Polls: Clinton 50.5, Trump 46.1 — Clinton wins by 4.4, Actual: Clinton 47.6, Trump 48.8 — Trump wins by 1.2, Exit Polls: Clinton 48.2, Trump 44.3 — Clinton wins by 3.9. Total votes for candidates cast by voters across the United States. Polls have long been a key component of tracking and analyzing political races, and presidential races are no exception. Fav/Unfavs vs. 2016; All Election Polls; State Polls; Senate Polls; Generic Ballot; Direction of Country; Election 2020. if(document.getElementsByClassName("reference").length==0) if(document.getElementById('Footnotes')!==null) document.getElementById('Footnotes').parentNode.style.display = 'none'; Post-debate analysis overview © 2020 Electoral Ventures LLC.
State projected at: 23:30 EST (04:30 GMT), State projected at: 02:48 EST (07:48 GMT), State projected at: 22:23 EST (03:23 GMT), State projected at: 23:05 EST (04:05 GMT), State projected at: 22:32 EST (03:32 GMT), State projected at: 02:35 EST (07:35 GMT), State projected at: 03:04 EST (08:04 GMT). Simon said that he’s reached the conclusion that due to the imprecise methodology of exit polls and the possibility of manipulation in computerized vote counts, neither system is trustworthy.
“Exit polls are an exciting piece of Election Day information. Use the sort to view the polls in different ways. Due to the need to compile nearly instantaneous results, exit pollsters rely on statistical models that may be outdated by the time an election rolls around. Full article What will President Trump do first? Trump wins. ^ All qualifying polls released on the same calendar date as the fifth poll will also be included in the average. On the other hand, George Gallup predicted a win by Roosevelt based on statistical random sampling, within 1.1% of the Literary Digest's results. Evolving Strategies and Ballotpedia surveyed 4,242 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.0%. Clinton, as of November 16 with reportedly several million votes nationwide yet to be counted, led the national popular vote by 0.9 percentage points, or approximately 1.6 million votes. One firm, Edison Research, conducts exit polling for all major news outlets. Below, see a sampling of 2016 presidential general election polls. I really need your help. Trump wins Republican Donald Trump is elected US president, defeating Democrat Hillary Clinton. Comparatively, John Kasich polled ahead of Clinton in five of the seven states, and Paul Ryan polled ahead of Clinton in three states.  Bush received 426 electoral votes to Dukakis' 111.. Powered by.
So what happened? See the latest estimates and poll results at HuffPost Pollster. The shorter polls lead to significantly higher rates of response, creating a larger sample size which gives a much better indicator of what the final result will be. SITE MAP, 117th Congress: Partisan Composition of the U.S. House by State, Remaining Uncalled Elections as of November 10, Making the Call: Why Media Outlets are Showing Different Electoral Vote Totals. Hillary Clinton: 232 electoral votes 232. And what do the exit polls actually tell us about who won the election? Poll Date Sample MoE. These are external links and will open in a new window. The average methodology is summarized below the table. Where that is not applicable, the most recent 2016 presidential election poll is used. POLITICO's Live 2016 Election Results and Maps by State, County and District. New Mexico: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein. “That is where I’ve tended to go, is to look at that risk rather than screaming fraud from the rooftops and claiming proof.”. It may take a similar amount of time to get to the bottom of this election … During 2016, Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump in 84% of national polls while Trump led in 12%. Please click to contribute. † Clinton won the …